Trump dangles cease-fire as oil rockets past $107 and europe feels diesel pinch
Donald Trump told traders late Thursday he is ready to call off U.S. strikes on Iran even if Tehran keeps the Strait of Hormuz sealed, a one-sentence hint that sent Brent crude back above $107 and lifted S&P 500 futures 0.9 % before Wall Street’s opening bell.
A fireball over natanz and a burning kuwaiti tanker
Satellite images show the latest American salvo hit a suburb of Natananz, home to Iran’s largest uranium enrichment hall. The blast registered on seismographs 120 km away; Tehran responded by putting a fully-laden Kuwaiti tanker in the Persian Gulf to the torch. March shipping data already list 18 diversions around the strait—through which a fifth of global seaborne oil normally flows—pushing European diesel premiums to their widest since the 2022 Ukraine invasion.
Traders who spent the week gaming escalation ladders woke up to a different headline: the White House is “exploring options” to halt the campaign, according to Senator Marco Rubio. The remark, slipped into a cable-news hit, was enough to flip the VIX lower and drag the Dow into positive territory for the first time since the strikes began on 28 February.
Price tag: $4 gasoline and 40 % oil surge
U.S. pump prices have now crossed the psychological $4-a-gallon mark for the first time since the post-invasion spike two years ago. Brent settled at $107.56 overnight, up 83 cents, while West Texas Intermediate hovers at $103.71. The jump has added more than 40 % to crude benchmarks in a single month—an acceleration that, according to Eurostat, helped shove euro-zone inflation back up to 2.5 % in March from 1.9 % in February.
Europe is feeling the squeeze on the ground. Refiners from Rotterdam to Trieste are bidding up diesel cargoes originally meant for Asia, and the 12-month Euribor has posted its steepest rise since 2008 as markets price in an energy-driven rate hike. Frankfurt and Washington, silent on monetary policy since the conflict began, now have fresh inflation prints on their desks.
Tokyo sinks, london shrugs
Asian indices were less impressed by the cease-fire chatter. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 dropped 1.6 % to 51,063, erasing its 2025 gains outright, while Seoul’s Kospi slid 4.3 % on reports that Samsung’s newest chip plant briefly lost power during Iranian cyber probes. European bourses rebounded: the FTSE 100 added 0.9 %, the CAC 400.5 %, and the DAX0.6 %, all tracking futures that priced in a quick cease-fire premium overnight.
Still, the strait remains a tinderbox. Tehran has floated the idea of a transit toll for “non-hostile” vessels, a move Rubio labelled “piracy by another name.” Until tanker captains believe the waters are safe, every $2 move in Brent will feel like a heartbeat skipped.