Trump’s five-day ceasefire ignites global markets while tehran denies talks

Global markets lurched from a 2.5 % plunge to a 2 % surge in minutes after Donald Trump declared a five-day moratorium on U.S. strikes against Iranian oil ports, claiming “productive” back-channel talks had cooled the Strait of Hormuz stand-off.

Gold gave back its biggest intraday gain on record, Brent crude collapsed 13 % from $114 to $97, and the Ibex 35 wiped out a morning loss of 420 points to close 170 points higher at 16 888. Futures on Wall Street flipped from –1.8 % to +1.5 % before the opening bell.

Tehran’s denial came faster than the algos

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi tweeted “no direct or indirect negotiations exist” less than 30 minutes after Trump’s post. The speed of the rebuttal suggests either the White House overstated the diplomacy or the channels are so covert that even Iran’s own cabinet has been kept in the dark.

Either way, traders had already covered shorts. European gas futures TTF dropped 8 %, U.S. gasoline futures fell 3 %, and the Henry Hub contract slid 6 %—a reminder that energy risk premia evaporate faster than they appear when a tweet hits the wire.

The five-day clock is now ticking. If no tanker moves through Hormuz by next Tuesday, the algorithmic buy orders of this morning will look like the ultimate bull trap.